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2004-04-15
Predictive markets: technology
This looks interesting.
Last summer much was made about the Pentagon's plans to launch a market that predicted future acts of terrorism. While terror-themed markets are understandably controversial predictive markets do have powerful applications in fields other than terrorism. To illustrate, the process of valuing a company is a fairly arduous task for a single person. A market's ability to aggregate information can be used to forecast a variety of future events. Technology Review's Innovation Futures marketplace is designed to forecast the outcome of events related to emerging technology and business trends. I, for one, certainly remember that story (about DARPA creating a futures market in terrorism).
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